From a fundamental perspective, Russian natural gas exports to China are expected to increase by approximately 25%. This reflects Moscow’s ongoing efforts to strengthen energy ties with Asia and expand sales to the world’s largest energy consumer. However, this increase is unlikely to fully offset the significant revenue losses caused by the collapse of gas exports to Europe.

Since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022, Russia has redirected most of its oil exports toward India and China following the breakdown of relations with Europe, once its main commodities market. Redirecting natural gas flows has proven more difficult. Negotiations to expand gas shipments to China have progressed slowly, although during President Vladimir Putin’s visit to China in September, both countries agreed to increase annual pipeline volumes by an additional 6 billion cubic meters, raising total capacity to 44 billion cubic meters.

Beyond short-term price action, natural gas should also be analyzed within a broader fundamental context. As the market attempts to stabilize after several days of sharp declines, structural factors affecting supply and demand continue to shape medium- and long-term expectations. In this regard, global energy flow developments—particularly Russia’s efforts to redirect gas exports toward Asia after losing the European market—provide additional context for understanding why the market remains cautious and why upside potential may be limited.

From a trading perspective, the market remains technically fragile in the short term. As long as prices stay below key resistance levels, downside risks remain elevated. A tactical trading strategy favors selling below $3.95, with a downside target at $3.70 and a protective stop-loss above $4.15. Traders should closely monitor the $3.44–$3.47 support zone, as a successful hold could trigger a rebound, while a clear breakdown could accelerate further losses.