published at 06.24.2026
Gold prices continued to decline, with XAU/USD falling below the key $4,000 level and reaching its lowest point since November 2025. The precious metal remains under pressure as investors react to growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may raise interest rates later this year. At the same time, the US Dollar has strengthened significantly, creating an additional challenge for Gold and other precious metals.
Most policymakers now support at least one interest rate hike in 2026 to address inflation concerns linked to rising energy costs. This hawkish outlook has boosted the US Dollar Index (DXY), which climbed to around 101.78, its highest level since May 2025. A stronger Dollar makes Gold more expensive for international buyers, while higher interest rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as Gold.

Business activity remains in expansion territory, and the labor market continues to show resilience. As a result, the central bank remains focused on bringing inflation back to its 2% target. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in a 70% probability of a rate hike in September. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming releases, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the final estimate of first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as both could influence future monetary policy decisions and Gold price movements.
From a technical perspective, Gold remains firmly in a bearish trend. The price continues to trade below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), confirming persistent downward pressure. Momentum indicators also reflect weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, suggesting that sellers still control the market, although bearish momentum may be becoming extended.
In the short term, Gold has extended its losses for a second consecutive day, while the US Dollar reached fresh 13-month highs near the 102.00 level. Overall market sentiment has also shifted in favor of the Dollar as global equity markets face significant pressure, particularly in the technology sector. Concerns about a potential correction in artificial intelligence-related stocks, combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, have increased demand for the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset.
Despite the current weakness, the long-term outlook for Gold remains positive. ING believes that structural factors such as central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainty continue to support the market. However, the recovery is expected to be slower and more volatile than previously anticipated. The bank now forecasts average Gold prices of $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter of 2026 and $4,600 per ounce in the fourth quarter. For investors, the current correction may provide opportunities to gradually increase positions if prices stabilize near key support levels, particularly for those who maintain a positive long-term view of Gold as a portfolio diversification tool and a hedge against inflation.
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