On shorter timeframes, the price remains above the $4,970 support level, but faces resistance near $5,046 and $5,127. The market structure suggests a tightening range, with higher lows and lower highs. A break above resistance could open the path toward $5,239, while a move below support may lead to declines toward $4,910 or $4,843.

After reaching approximately $5,423 following the initial escalation in late February, gold quickly pulled back to around $5,085 and later dropped to a low near $4,967 before stabilizing again. This limited reaction to major geopolitical events shows that the strength of the U.S. dollar and interest rate expectations are offsetting safe-haven demand.

The main factors influencing gold’s behavior are closely linked. A stronger U.S. dollar makes gold more expensive for international buyers, reducing demand. At the same time, expectations of higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold compared to assets that generate returns. Both factors depend on how markets view future Federal Reserve policy, making Fed communication more important than the rate decision itself.

Gold is currently caught between strong support from geopolitical risks and pressure from monetary policy expectations. The next major move will likely depend on signals from the Federal Reserve, especially comments from Chair Jerome Powell. Traders may consider waiting for a clear breakout from the current range—either above resistance for bullish continuation or below support for a bearish move. Until then, a cautious approach with short-term strategies and solid risk management is recommended.