EURUSD Pressured as Trade Confusion

EURUSD is trading close to $1.1364, challenging the upper edge of a descending trendline while maintaining support near $1.1531. Immediate resistance lies at $1.1418, and a decisive break above could pave the way toward $1.1544. A sustained move above $1.1418 would favor bulls, whereas a fall below $1.1531 could see the pair retest $1.1309.

The U.S. dollar held firm on Monday as market participants awaited clarity on trade policy developments and anticipated a packed economic calendar. At 143.69 yen and $1.1325 against the euro, the dollar has found temporary support but is still set for its steepest monthly decline in over two years. Despite a late-week rebound sparked by hints of a thaw in U.S.-China relations, the greenback remains down more than 4% against both the euro and yen in April.

Recent headlines suggest a softening in rhetoric, with the Trump administration expressing willingness to ease tariffs and Beijing considering exemptions on some U.S. imports. However, the situation remains murky. While President Trump claims ongoing discussions with President Xi Jinping, Chinese officials firmly deny any active trade talks. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also refrained from confirming that negotiations are taking place.

Amid the uncertainty, EURUSD is locked in a narrow range around 1.1350. Investors appear cautious, refraining from strong bets as conflicting reports from Washington and Beijing create confusion. Trump asserted that conversations with Xi are underway, while China’s embassy and foreign ministry publicly denied any such discussions.

Further fueling ambiguity, Trump emphasized in a Time Magazine interview that Xi had contacted him "numerous times" following the introduction of new tariffs. Yet, Treasury Secretary Bessent, when pressed by the media, admitted he was unaware of any recent talks between the two leaders.

In the meantime, the U.S. dollar continues to draw strength from hopes of a potential easing in trade tensions. However, the upcoming release of major economic indicators — particularly Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report — could significantly sway market sentiment. Investors will closely monitor whether the recent market turbulence has started to impact real economic activity, especially in the labor market.

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